By Nathan Powell @NPowellDFW
This is an addition to the most awesome series started by Brian Luzier on Dynasty Football Warehouse, where I will highlight a player I feel whose value is higher than his current ADP and explain in 5 simple reasons why that is the case. Brian Hartline’s current ADP is around the 12th round, behind players like Ryan Broyles, Alshon Jeffery and Denarius Moore, all guys who I have ranked behind Hartline in 2013.
Often times a young QB like Ryan Tannehill targets who he is most comfortable with, and Brian Hartline is only one in the Dolphins receiving corp who is relevant in fantasy and was on the Dolphins in 2012. Last year, in Tannehill’s rookie year, Hartline had 74 receptions, 1083 yards and 1 touchdown. While many feel the acquisitions of Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson and Dustin Keller hurt Hartlines value in 2013, I actually think it helps, drawing coverage away from Hartline and making for some excellent one-on-one opportunities with teams no. 2 Cornerback. Brian Hartline had the best year of his career in 2012 with Ryan Tannehill, almost doubling his average yardage in his first 3 years in the NFL. I think that Hartline will thrive in the Dolphins offense in 2013 as a no. 2 receiver. In 2012, Hartline was the Dolphins No. 1 WR and he is by no means the elite talent that most teams are looking for in a No. 1 Receiver, however I do believe that Hartline’s talents are well suited for the position of the No. 2 receiver, which is where Hartline will be playing in 2013.
2. 3rd down
I think Brian Hartline is going to be Tannehill’s main target on third downs in 2013. In 2012, 48 of Hartlines 74 receptions resulted in a first down for the Dolphins. This includes an 86% conversion rate on catches on third down resulting in a 1st down. Hartline finished in the top 25 in receptions in 2012, making him an even better value in PPR formats. The acquisition of Mike Wallace isn’t a huge damper to Hartline’s third down value, however Wallace did have a 70% conversion rate on catches on 3rd down resulting in a 1st.
3. Mike Wallace and Ryan Tannehill
Mike Wallace is the Dolphins best deep threat in 2013, so when Wallace is running go’s and 20-25 yards posts, Hartline is going to be the guy that Tannehill targets on intermediate routes if Wallace is not open downfield. I feel like people have somewhat strong opinions on Tannehill, some put his ceiling around the same as Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck, others put his ceiling around the level of Jay Cutler, which can also vary depending on who you are talking to. In my opinion, Ryan Tannehill is going to continue to improve each week this season, which will in turn increase Hartline’s value as the season progresses. (EDITOR’S NOTE: New 2013 Dolphins Logo!).
4. The Arizona game
Whenever a player has a huge game like Hartline did against the Arizona Cardinals in 2012, where he caught 12 passes for 253 yards and his lone touchdown of the season, in fantasy preparation for the next season, some will say “If you take out the Arizona game, he only had 830 yards and 0 touchdowns”, I choose to think the opposite way, the Arizona game proves that Hartline has big play ability and has the ability to break out at any moment, which could springboard to some consistency in 2013. The best spots to play Hartline in 2013 will be against teams with a solid No. 1 cornerback, but a suspect No. 2, one example of this is against the Jets, when Antonio Cromartie will likely line up with Mike Wallace, leaving Kyle Wilson, or an unproven rookie in Dee Milliner to line up against Brian Hartline.
5. Touchdowns will come
Whenever a player finishes a season with 1,000+ yards and only one touchdown, the first thing I look at is the yards per catch, Hartlines YPC in 2012 was 14.6, nothing too out of the ordinary, if that number is inflated it would have lead me to think, “This guys is a deep threat who just can’t get in the end zone.”, that isn’t the case with Hartline, and with Mike Wallace getting many of the deep shots downfield, I can definitely see an increase in Hartlines red zone targets in 2013. If Hartline can reach the endzone 6-7 times in 2013, which I believe he has the ability and opportunity to do in 2013, he will be a solid WR3.