Percy Harvin was acquired by the Seattle Seahawks for Seattle’s first-round pick in the 2013 NFL draft (used to select CB Xavier Rhodes), their seventh-round pick in the 2013 NFL draft and a to-be-determined mid-round pick in the 2014 NFL draft. Seattle added a dynamic weapon to their offense, but also a player with a ton of injury risk. He’s had numerous injuries throughout his high school, college career and NFL career (you name it, Achilles tendonitis, knee tendonitis, hip flexor, hamstring, quad issues, high ankle sprains, fracture in his legs, not to mention missed games for migraines and sinus infections and a hospitalization for reportedly dehydration). Well, add “partially torn hip labrum” to that litany of injuries and more missed games for the young superstar.
Followers of Percy Harvin on Twitter (@Percy_Harvin) saw this unfortunate tweet Tuesday evening:
“when everything is goin good sometimes life throw u a curve ball… sorry to half to report that my injury will require surgery…”
After seeking a second medical opinion, Harvin has elected to have surgery on his injured hip and reports of how quickly he will be able to return to the field range from just after Thanksgiving to next season. At best, it’s speculated Harvin could return following the Seahawks’ week 11 BYE, but that leaves fantasy owners only one or two regular season weeks and the fantasy playoffs to utilize his services. You have to think he will not be at 100%, so it may be a lost fantasy season for the dynamic play-maker. The big question now is, how does this affect the fantasy value of the rest of the Seahawks’ offensive skill players?
It stands to reason the player who sees the greatest gain is Golden Tate. Tate will now move into the starting spot opposite Sidney Rice and should see the field on a much more consistent basis. Before the news broke, we had Tate penciled in for 53 receptions, 657 yards and five touchdowns. I see no reason why he can’t approach 65 receptions, 800 yards and eight touchdowns now.
Doug Baldwin should also see an increase in his numbers as the third WR when Seattle runs a three-wide offense. He should see some time in the slot, and will likely replicate his 2012 numbers of 29 receptions, 366 yards and three touchdowns, up from our projected 18/259/1.
Tight End Zach Miller may also get his chance to become a factor in the passing game this season. Miller has been a fantasy force before, but his tenure with Seattle has been less-than-exciting for fantasy owners. I think he sees a slight bump in what we had projected, but I wouldn’t expect more than 500 yards and four touchdowns on 45 receptions.
Sidney Rice owners shouldn’t expect much more from the seventh-year pro than he produced in 2012, as I expect his numbers to be only minimally improved. Expect numbers in the neighborhood of 60 receptions, 850 yards and eight touchdowns.
Owners of Russell Wilson should not be panicked as I feel Harvin’s injury does not dampen his expectations much for 2013. We currently have Wilson as QB8, but his value is tied to his ability to generate fantasy points with his legs as well as his arm. He may fall short of the 3,802 passing yards we had projected before Harvin’s injury, but I think any passing yards lost will be supplemented by additional yards on the ground. I’d project Wilson to finish with around 3,400 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 550 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, keeping him as a low-end QB1.
Marshawn Lynch was already a borderline RB1, but this injury may make him a surefire one now. Seattle ran the ball 536 times in 2012, with Lynch getting 315 of those carries. Harvin was a threat to steal some of those touches this season, but now the heavy lifting is back on the shoulders of Lynch. I see no reason Lynch will see fewer than 300 carries this season and will still be a consideration in the passing game. I would safely project Lynch to have 1,350 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions, 200 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
The remaining offensive weapons (Robert Turbin, Christine Michael, Chris Harper, Luke Willson) likely won’t see a change in any of their projected numbers. Turbin still remains a viable handcuff to Lynch and Willson may become the primary receiving tight end, so monitor those situations throughout the preseason. The others are not worthy of fantasy consideration at this point.