FROM THE VAULT – originally published 04/23/2014
Fantasy Football Warehouse is proud to present the winner of the 2014 Bust Candidate contest! We posted on our forums the entries and let our expert forum community decide the answers (and thank you for weighing in). The biggest bust candidate goes to: Knowshon Moreno Congratulations to Jason Teasley on the winning answer according to our most awesome forum voters. Jason takes the lead for the title of 2014 Warehouse Bust, Breakout and Sleeper Competition Champion. See all the great analysis below on the four entrants we have. Shout-out as well to Christopher Cheung and Mike Wonders. They both had Zac Stacy as their bust of the year candidate (matching answers should be some bonus perhaps but they likely captured some of each other’s votes). Clickhere for the details of the contest. Tomorrow, the 2014 Breakout Player winner will be released, and Wednesday’s release will have the 2014 Super Sleeper winner released.
2014 Warehouse Bust, Breakout and Sleeper Competition Champion ENTRIES!
|2014 Writer Entrants||BUST||BREAKOUT||SLEEPER|
|Jay Blast||Adrian Peterson|
|Mike Cagna||Cordarrelle Patterson|
|Bill Cervi||Cam Newton|
|Christopher Cheung||Zac Stacy|
|Eric Hogue||Marshawn Lynch|
|David McCrea||DeSean Jackson|
|Jason Teasley||Knowshon Moreno|
|Mike Wonders||Zac Stacy|
2014 Warehouse Bust, Breakout and Sleeper Competition Champion RESULTS!
|2014 Writer Entrants||BUST||BREAKOUT||SLEEPER||TOTAL|
The 2014 NFL star that will be a complete BUST will be…Knowshon Moreno. I think the whole “taking his talents to South Beach” was a huge blow to the potential to Moreno’s 2014 stock with him being a product of a Denver offense more than pure talent. Having Peyton as your quarterback limits the 8-man fronts you will see. Prior to Peyton coming to town you see what Moreno talent actually was producing meager numbers of 139/528/4 in 2012 which is typically what you can expect of him in the tandem RBBC situation that he will find himself in Miami. Lamar Miller is still in town and though he is not the best blocker/pass protection guy in the NFL he has lightning quick speed and great open field talent. Moreno will mirror something like Sproles in New Orleans last year not having much ground work but given his nice hands out of the back field making him matter and an asset in PPR formats.
Written by Jason Teasley (1st Place, 23% of the vote)
DeSean Jackson – where do his targets come from? Pierre Garcon led the NFL in targets last year w/ 183, 58 more targets than Jackson had in the high play volume Philadelphia offense. Factor in an emerging Jordan Reed, newly-signed Andre Roberts and regression red flags start popping up everywhere Jackson. Don’t forget….New offense and just got paid: 900 yards and 4TDs for Djax.
Written by David McCrea (2nd Place, 18% of the vote)
Every year it seems that one or two teams face unusual circumstances that seem to snowball as the offseason progresses and this year the fates seem to have singled out the Carolina Panthers. Since their final game of the 2013 season, a crushing 23-10 home loss to the Niners in the NFC Divisional playoffs, the Panthers have suffered significant losses to the offensive side of the ball. Upfront, their offensive line lost pro bowl left tackle Jordan Gross (PFF’s # 3 rated Tackle for 2013) to retirement and starting left guard (PFF’s # 5 rated LG for 2013) Travelle Wharton remains a free agent. Those losses alone are reason for concern in the passing game but the most damaging offseason loss of all was the departure of their entire WR corps. Gone are Steve Smith, Brandon Lafell, Ted Ginn, and Domenik Hixon and replacing them are Jericho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and Tiquan Underwood… DOH! The Panthers will surely add an impact WR in the upcoming draft, but he and all of the other new Panther WRs will not have much of an opportunity to work with Cam Newton because he underwent ankle surgery in mid-March to repair lingering ligament damage. Newton’s expected recovery time is 4 months and although he may be able to start throwing some before training camp, the loss of chemistry and timing with his WRs seems to be a recipe for stunted production in the short term (see Tom Brady in 2013). Some analysts believe that the Panthers will lean on their running game to help the passing game but I just do not see this happening. Carolina will be starting a revamped (average at best) O-line, rookie or average journeymen WRs and they will be relying on aged or injury prone RBs facing 8 man boxes on a regular basis. Unless the Panthers draft an immediately impactful WR I would not draft Newton as my starting QB in redraft leagues for 2014. For Dynasty purposes. I think selling Cam now is a great plan (if you can get the right price) and then I would look to re-acquire him after the 2014 season as I still think Cam Newton is a top 10 Dynasty QB for the long term.
Written by Bill Cervi (tied 3rd Place, 15% of the vote)
Currently coming off the board as the WR12 in start-up drafts per recent DFW ADP, Cordarrelle Patterson is an overwhelming choice for 2014 bust candidate. I just can’t imagine a scenario in which he lives up to that lofty draft status this upcoming season. Patterson remains an unpolished WR with a limited route tree. He will have to learn a whole new offense this year with Norv Turner coming in as the Vikings new offensive coordinator. Patterson’s ability to quickly digest a new playbook was something several scouts questioned leading up to the 2013 NFL Draft. He will also be dealing once again with uncertainty at the QB position. Will he be catching passes from Matt Casell? Christian Ponder? A TBD 2014 Draft pick? Personally, I think it’s highly likely that more than 1 QB will start for the Vikings this year. Continuity is a key component in a rookie making a leap from Year 1 to Year 2 and Patterson doesn’t have that in Minnesota right now. Something else to consider is the fact that the Vikings will be playing outdoors in 2014 at the University of Minnesota. This fact cannot be discounted as the Vikings could very well be playing several late season games in poor conditions. For a player whose statistical output is largely big-play driven this could have a crippling effect on his production come fantasy playoff time. It’s no stretch to think a defensive-minded Head Coach like Mike Zimmer would look to take the air out of the ball and lean on Adrian Peterson more so than normal in these situations. For all these reasons, I see Corderrele Patterson as a WR3 at best this season. While he may have weeks where he explodes for big points, he’s likely to have several more where he struggles to reach 5 points. For a guy currently being picked in the 2nd round ahead of Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon and Percy Harvin to name a few, that just won’t cut it.
Written by Mike Cagna (tied 3rd Place, 15% of the vote)
Grinch about Marshawn Lynch: My favorite bust candidate for 2014 is a middle aged RB with a lot of tread on his tires, a talented backup and a bad O-line who’s been elite the last 3 years. If that sounds familiar it’s probably because Marshawn Lynch is going into the exact same season profile as Ray Rice did last year. You know, except Ray Rice catches the ball, wasn’t in legal trouble (yet), had guaranteed money left on his deal and was 2 years younger. Despite all those warning signs Marshawn Lynch is sitting at 6th in redraft and 18th in dynasty leagues. Risk in the early rounds is especially devastating because the chance that a player will significantly outperform their draft slot is small, so it’s very unlikely that the reward of getting a 19PPG RB will outweigh the risk that you’ll be forced to replace early round talent. In the simplest of terms; it’s virtually impossible to win a ring in the first 2 rounds but it’s incredibly easy to lose it. Stay ahead of the curve and avoid Lynch unless he drops to the 3rd or 4th.
Written by Eric Hogue (5th Place, 8% of the vote)
Considering a bust is a player that will vastly under-perform based on expectations, I’m going to point the finger directly at Adrian Peterson as suspect number 1. AP has had surgery in 3 of the last 3 years (ACL, sports hernia, and groin). That’s 100% for the mathematically challenged and I’m not counting the foot injury that cost him games at the end of last season. He played 12 games in 2011 and 14 last year. He’s 29, has over 2000 carries, and even his huge year in 2012 is cause for concern considering the Curse of 370. While I recognize that it’s blasphemy to speak against Purple Jesus, I’ll let someone else take the risk with their first pick and I encourage you to do the same. Other busts I considered are Ray Rice and Marshawn Lynch, but no one is counting on Rice at this point. I might be a year early, but watching the decline of studs like Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and Brian Westbrook over the years put me on guard. These guys were once immortal too and I mention them because they all hold a place close to my heart in fantasy history. Some might suggest that Peterson won’t break down based on high volume and that he’s superhuman. I’ll side with history and let that guy be left holding the bag when the well runs dry. Draft for future stats, not the past.
Written by Jay Blast (tied 6th Place, 7% of the vote)
Rumbling and tumbling, this bowling ball of a player was a surprise player for many. For a lot of us dynasty owners, we were expecting maybe a few good games here and there, but waiting till 2014 for him to make a splash. But nope! Zac Stacy decides to throw his breakout party early, and wowed as a rookie in 2013. Stacy became the focal point of the St. Louis Rams offense at mid-season, and not only tore it up, he beat out TWO guys and grabbed a hold of the job. Sadly, this may be the valley year for Zac Stacy. I like him as a player with the tools to grind it out and carry a team on his back. However, the division he is in does him no favor. Stacy has only one great game against division opponents (and surprisingly it’s against the Seahawks). He is not so lucky in the other five games. Even if you discounted the two early division game, Stacy was still bad in the remaining three. At least six games next season will be times when you would rather plug someone else in, in Stacy’s place. He is also a volume runner and requires multiple pounding before he finds his rhythm. In today’s NFL, volume is something of a luxury. Once you’ve fallen behind in scoring, teams tend to panic and move away from the running game. Stacy does have some catching ability, but when it is time to gain those big yards on passing down, I highly doubt Bradford is looking Stacy’s way when he has weapons like Bailey, Austin, Cook, and now Brittle Britt. Color me not optimistic this year to Zac’s Attack!
Written by Christopher Chueng (tied 6th Place, 7% of the vote)
First, let me say I like Zac Stacy a lot. I hope he proves me wrong and has a very good season. However, what I see is a running back who averaged under 4 ypc and doesn’t get a lot of work in the pass game. Averaging 3.9 yards per carry on the season might be nitpicking a player who certainly has room to improve but the most concerning thing about the yards per carry is their trend toward the end of the season. In the month of December, Stacy’s ypc dipped to a paltry 3.2 over 5 games. Furthermore, three of those final 5 games came against the stout defenses of the NFC West, a group that Stacy will face six times in 2014. Last year, he more or less missed 2 of those matchups as the Rams faced Arizona and San Francisco in weeks 1 and 2 before Stacy had grabbed the starting job. Unlike a Le’Veon Bell, Stacy does not pad his fantasy stats with many receptions and must score by keeping his rushing yardage up and continuing to punch in touchdowns which can be very unpredictable.The team around him leaves a bit to be desired as well. Jake Long’s season ended with an ACL and MCL tear and it remains to be seen if he will return as the same player. The passing offense still seems to be lacking cohesion and though Sam Bradford returns, he has been decidedly mediocre to this point. What is currently stopping opposing defenses from stacking the box? Finally, look out for a little bit of the Doug Martin factor. Martin is a player whose bandwagon I was not on in 2013, largely due to the fact that a big chunk of his fantasy production came over a 2 week span. I felt it caused his total body of work to appear more attractive than it actually was and he might be a candidate to disappoint, even just slightly. In PPR formats, Zac Stacy had one week with a 35 point outburst and just one other week with more than 19 points. Take out the 35 point week and his weekly average from weeks 4 on was just 13.3 points. With an ADP in the early 3rd round and many cases where Stacy is being taken in round 2, I’m not sure I want to invest that high a pick in him. Of course the Rams do have 2 first round picks in the draft and could bolster their offensive line and/or add a weapon in the passing game to help open up running lanes. If this happens, it may slightly change my outlook but for now, I see a fair amount of bust potential in Zac Stacy.
Written by Mike Wonders (tied 6th Place, 7% of the vote)